Rasmussen Massachusetts Gubernatorial Survey

• Deval Patrick (D) 35% <33%>
• Charlie Baker (R) 32% <28%>
• Tim Cahill (I) 19% <25%>
• Not sure 14% <14%>

• Deval Patrick (D) 34% <32%>
• Tim Cahill (I) 30% <28%>
• Christy Mihos (R) 19% <26%>
• Not sure 16% <14%>

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Tim Cahill 55% <49%> / 28% <28%> {+27%}
• Charlie Baker 46% <42%> / 26% <29%> {+20%}
• Christy Mihos 38% <46%> / 42% <36%> {-4%}
• Deval Patrick 43% <42%> / 55% <56%> {-12%}

How would you rate the job Deval Patrick has been doing as Governor?

• Strongly approve 14% {16%} (9%) <11%> [7%] {11%}
• Somewhat approve 25% {24%} (32%) <23%> [32%] {31%}
• Somewhat disapprove 24% {21%} (17%) <27%> [26%] {25%}
• Strongly disapprove 37% {38%} (40%) <37%> [34%] {32%}

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?

• Strongly approve 34% {37%} (35%) <31%> [39%] {40%}
• Somewhat approve 20% {20%} (22%) <24%> [20%] {23%}
• Somewhat disapprove 11% {10%} (12%) <9%> [11%] {12%}
• Strongly disapprove 35% {31%} (30%) <35%> [30%] {24%}

Survey of 500 Likely Voters in Massachusetts was conducted March 8, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted January 11, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 4, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted November 23, 2009 are in angle brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 20, 2009 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 24, 2009 are in curly brackets.

Inside the numbers:

Patrick carries the plurality of female voters in both three-way match-ups. Male voters prefer Baker but go for Cahill when Mihos is the Republican in the contest.

Similarly, voters not affiliated with either major party like Baker but favor Cahill if Mihos is their GOP choice.

Cahill takes anywhere from 16% to 20% of the Democratic vote. Baker earns 57% of the GOP vote, while the embattled Mihos picks up just 40% of the vote in his own party.

Massachusetts Republicans will pick their Senate nominee in a September 14 primary.